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correlation-cointegration techniques. For each country in the Pacific Basin region, we find statistically adequate STAR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011591386
While conditional forecasting has become prevalent both in the academic literature and in practice (e.g., bank stress testing, scenario forecasting), its applications typically focus on continuous variables. In this paper, we merge elements from the literature on the construction and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012137102
This study explores the benefits of incorporating fat-tailed innovations, asymmetric volatility response, and an extended information set into crude oil return modeling and forecasting. To this end, we utilize standard volatility models such as Generalized Autoregressive Conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014252427
Unemployment, firm Dynamics, and the Business CyclTime variation is a fundamental problem in statistical and econometric analysis of macroeconomic and financial data. Recently there has been considerable focus on developing econometric modelling that enables stochastic structural change in model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012316010
In this paper, we address the issue of spurious correlation in the production of health in a systematic way. Spurious … correlation entails the risk of linking health status to medical (and nonmedical) inputs when no links exist. This note first … presents the bounds testing procedure as a method to detect and avoid spurious correlation. It then applies it to a recent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003900852
and product price dynamics using cointegration and error correction models. Subsequently we use the error correction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011592760
Johansen cointegration technique which is appropriate for empirical testing based on time series. The empirical results suggest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011852881
This paper provides new evidence on the effect of debt on economic growth through two alternative methodological approaches. On the one hand, by using a panel error correction model with a sample of 130 countries between 1980 and 2020, we found evidence of the existence of a range of debt-to-GDP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014461312
cointegration techniques in modelling the conditional mean, as well as multivariate GARCH models for the conditional variances. We … specifiy the conditional variances of VECM residuals with the Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) multivariate GARCH model … of Bollerslev (1990) and the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) multivariate GARCH model of Engle (2002). The within …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011603089
a non-linear utility function specified according to model specification rules from the econometrics and statistics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008702182