In this note we provide simulation evidence on the size and power of tests of predictive ability described in Giacomini and White (2006). Our goals are modest but non-trivial. First, we establish that there exist data generating processes that satisfy the null hypotheses of equal finite-sample...

We investigate a test of equal predictive ability delineated in Giacomini and White (2006; Econometrica). In contrast to a claim made in the paper, we show that their test statistic need not be asymptotically Normal when a fixed window of observations is used to estimate model parameters. An example...

When constructing unconditional point forecasts, both direct- and iterated-multistep (DMS and IMS) approaches are common. However, in the context of producing conditional forecasts, IMS approaches based on vector autoregressions (VAR) are far more common than simpler DMS models. This is despite...

We estimate a well-specified two-state regime-switching model for Danish stock returns. The model identifies two regimes which have low return-low volatility and high return-high volatility, respectively. The low return-low volatility regime dominated, except in a few, short episodes, until the...

This essay provides an overview of the major emissions trading programs of the past thirty years on which significant documentation exists, and draws a number of important lessons for future applications of this environmental policy instrument. References to a larger number of other emissions...

Over the last decade decarbonisation has become a key priority for the EU. However, on the contrary of renewable energy or energy efficiency, the role of gas in this process has never been clearly defined. This uncertainty opens a wide debate on the future role of gas in the EU energy system,...

Mitigating climate change will require innovation in energy technologies. Policy makers are faced with the question of how to promote this innovation, and whether to focus on a few technologies or to spread their bets. We present results on the extent to which public R&D might shape the future...

Innovative business models supported by digital technologies, together with the widening connectivity and data collection, are already giving a big contribution in fostering the access to electricity and clean cooking in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper gives an overview on the actual state of...

After the Soviet breakup, Central Asia has gained importance for several States because of its geographical location and abundance of hydrocarbon reserves. These hydrocarbon reserves are located mainly in three countries: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Each of them has taken different...