Why have white, less educated voters left the Democratic Party over the past few decades? Scholars have proposed ethnocentrism, social issues and deindustrialization as potential answers. We highlight the role played by the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In event-study...

This paper estimates the effects of NAFTA on labor and wages in Mexico using a local labor-markets approach. While NAFTA offered greater export opportunities to Mexican firms that may raise employment, it also opened the door to increased import competition that may dampen employment gains. This...

In this paper, we analyze the propagation of recessions across countries. We construct a model with multiple qualitative state variables that evolve in a VAR setting. The VAR structure allows us to include country-level variables to determine whether policy also propagates across countries. We...