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This paper extends the procedure developed by Jurado et al. (2015) to allow the estimation of measures of uncertainty …
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We explore whether the market variance risk premium (VRP) can be predicted. First, we propose a novel approach to … than synthetic S&P 500 variance swap quotes, thus avoiding biases in VRP measurement. Next, we find that a deterioration of …
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In this paper, we extend the standard Gaussian stochastic-volatility Bayesian VAR by employing the generalized hyperbolic skew Student's t distribution for the innovations. Allowing the skewness parameter to vary over time, our specification permits flexible modelling of innovations in terms of...
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We confirm that standard time-series models for US output growth, inflation, interest rates and stock market returns feature non-Gaussian error structure. We build a 4-variable VAR model where the orthogonolised shocks have a Student t-distribution with a time-varying variance. We find that in...
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