Central banks have usually employed short-term rates as the main instrument of monetary policy. In the last decades, however, forward guidance has also become a central tool for monetary policy. In an innovative way this paper combines two sources of extraneous information - high frequency...

This paper identifies the natural interest rate for the Macedonian economy using quarterly data for 2001Q4-2019Q3. To this end, the estimation is made by using different types of models, such as the Holston, Laubach, and Williams model and the full-fledged country-specific structural MAKPAM...

This paper employs a Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) consistent shadow-rate model to decompose UK nominal yields into expectation and term premia components. Compared to a standard affine term structure model, it performs relatively better in a ZLB setting and effectively captures the countercyclical...

Monetary policy moves the yield curve. How much is due to expected interest rates vs. term premia? And does it matter for macroeconomic outcomes? Using an affine term structure model, we shed new light on these questions. Estimation is subject to restrictions addressing an estimation bias in...

In this paper, the natural rate of interest in Denmark, Norway and Sweden are estimated. This is done by augmenting the Laubach and Williams (2003) framework with a dynamic factor model linked to economic indicators - a modelling choice which allows us to better identify business cycle...

The secular increase in globalization led to a substantial increase in the interconnectedness of global financial markets. This has important implications for the conduct of monetary policy, as central bank policies may diverge across countries, potentially affecting key transmission channels of...

This paper analyzes business cycle synchronization and the Phillips curve (PC) relationship in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European (CESEE) economies relative to the euro area. We find an overall increase in business cycle synchronicity, particularly among Euro adoption candidates, with...

Standard models used for monetary policy analysis rely on sticky prices. Recently, the literature started to explore also nominal debt contracts. Focusing on mortgages, this paper compares the two channels of transmission within a common framework. The sticky price channel is dominant when...

Standard models used for monetary policy analysis rely on sticky prices. Recently, the literature started to explore also nominal debt contracts. Focusing on mortgages, this paper compares the two channels of transmission within a common framework. The sticky price channel is dominant when...

With a unique data set summarizing the quality of rules-based fiscal governance in EU member states, we show that stronger fiscal rules in euro area members reduce sovereign risk premia, in particular in times of market stress. To do so, we develop a model of sovereign spreads that are...