This paper studies the information content of the S&P 500 and VIX markets on the volatility of the S&P 500 returns. We estimate a flexible affine model based on a joint time series of underlying indexes and option prices on both markets. An extensive model specification analysis reveals that...

A new test is proposed for the null of absence of serial correlation. The test uses a data-driven smoothing parameter. The resulting test statistic has a standard limit distribution under the null. The smoothing parameter is calibrated to achieve rate-optimality against several classes of...

Commonly used tests to assess evidence for the absence of autocorrelation in a univariate time series or serial cross-correlation between time series rely on procedures whose validity holds for i.i.d. data. When the series are not i.i.d., the size of correlogram and cumulative Ljung-Box tests...

We consider changes in the degree of persistence of a process when the degree of persistence is characterized as the order of integration of a strongly dependent process. To avoid the risk of incorrectly specifing the data generating process we employ local Whittle estimates which uses only...

Time series models are often fitted to the data without preliminary checks for stability of the mean and variance, conditions that may not hold in much economic and financial data, particularly over long periods. Ignoring such shifts may result in fitting models with spurious dynamics that lead...

What is the role of financial speculation in determining the real oil price? We find that while macroeconomic shocks have been the major upward driver of the real oil price since the mid 1980s, also financial shocks have sizably contributed since the early 2000s, and at a much larger extent...

In this paper the oil price-macroeconomy relationship is investigated from a global perspective, by means of a large scale macro-financial-econometric model. In addition to real activity, fiscal and monetary policy responses and labor and financial markets are considered as well. We find that...

This paper studies volatility spillovers in credit default swaps (CDS) between the corporate sectors and Latin American countries. Daily data from October 14, 2006, to August 23, 2021, are employed. Spillovers are computed both for the raw data and for filtered series which factor out the effect...

International evidence on the accrual anomaly is sparse and conflicting. Testing for accrual mispricing in 28 equity markets, we provide statistical evidence for anomalous returns in some countries. However, we question whether this result might have occurred by chance alone and that it might...