Commuting shapes countless everyday-lives around the world, with dynamics varying from city to regional and cross regional level. Taking as reference the free-movement EU-28 area (plus Switzerland and Norway), the analysis considers a total sample of 195 NUTS2 regions over the decade 2007-2017...

We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard...

What are the job multipliers of the green industrialization? We tackle this question within EU regions over the period 2003-2017, building a novel measure of green manufacturing penetration that combines green production and regional employment data. We estimate local job multipliers of green...

In this paper we discuss some strands of the recent literature on the evolution of gender gaps and their driving forces. We will revisit key stylized facts about gender gaps in employment and wages in a few high-income countries. We then discuss and build on one gender-neutral force behind the...

Decreases in labor supply among cash-transfer recipients are often cited as potential drawbacks of social-assistance programs. However, cash transfers can also increase employment. Using variation across cohorts and over time in the eligibility criteria of a nationwide conditional cash-transfer...

The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that should be implemented. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. First of all, we test and systematically evaluate the ability of several...

This study develops a framework for forecasting selected balance sheet items of the four largest Maltese core banks, with a particular emphasis on bank profitability. Methodologically, it employs two multivariate time series models, namely a Factor-Augmented VAR (FAVAR) and a Bayesian VAR...

Putting a price on carbon - with taxes or developing carbon markets - is a widely used policy measure to achieve the target of net-zero emissions by 2050. This paper tackles the issue of producing point, direction-of-change, and density forecasts for the monthly real price of carbon within the...

We investigate a test of equal predictive ability delineated in Giacomini and White (2006; Econometrica). In contrast to a claim made in the paper, we show that their test statistic need not be asymptotically Normal when a fixed window of observations is used to estimate model parameters. An example...

The primary goal of this paper is to describe several models that are currently used at the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) for short-term forecasting of inflation - Autoregressive integrated moving average models (aggregated and disaggregated approach), three equation...