the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our … the GI outperform the traditional ones in predicting the monthly unemployment rate, even in most state-level forecasts and … ; US Unemployment ; Time Series Models …

employment rate raises the re-employment probability within 36 months after job loss by 5.7 percentage points. The paper also …

Wages are only mildly cyclical, implying that shocks to labour demand have a larger short-run impact on unemployment …