static forecasts, as well as different measures of forecast errors. Finally, we propose a new class of models which combine …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … MAKPAM model and exogenous determinants, such as output gap, world commodity prices, and foreign effective inflation. The … inflation forecast, with relatively good fit of equations for food and domestic oil prices. This model serves as satellite model …

, while the ECM implies symmetric price transmission from crude oil to gasoline. We quantify the forecast accuracy gains due …

distribution by asking whether ethanol returns can be used to forecast different parts of field crops returns distribution, or vice … Squares. Forecast evaluation relies on quantile-weighed scoring rules, which identify regions of the distribution of interest … by using field crops returns. On the contrary, there is no evidence that ethanol can be used to forecast any region of …