This paper analyzes influences on the credit standing of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), specifically the quality, diversification and single name concentration of their portfolios, and on the market practice known as Preferred Creditor Status (PCS), whereby sovereigns that default on...

While empirical literature has documented a negative relation between default risk and stock returns, the theory suggests that default risk should be positively priced. We provide an explanation for this "default anomaly", by calculating monthly probabilities of default (PDs) for a large sample...

This paper investigates how a country's economic complexity influences its sovereign yield spread with respect to the United States. Notably, a one-unit increase in the Economic Complexity Index is associated with a reduction of about 87 basis points in the 10-year yield spread. However, this...

We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time-varying risk premium consistent with that bias....

Climate change adaptation efforts are heavily dependent on a country's fiscal capacity and the associated costs of undertaking adaptation policies. The current accumulation of high debt levels in emerging and low-income developing countries, which are disproportionately affected by climate...

The last global crisis brought the monetary policy risk-taking channel to the fore, arguing that lingering low interest rates might affect not only the quantity, but the quality of credit extended as well. In line with this debate, this paper is the first effort to empirically investigate the...

Our paper addresses the issue on the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies in small open economies for different exchange rate regimes. The need for macroprudential policy arises from exacerbated macroeconomic fluctuations due to frictions in the financial system as in...

Long-term development finance provided by Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) is key to advancing the United Nations 2015 Sustainable Development Goals. However, MDBs are constrained in their lending by the availability of capital. This paper argues that Risk Transfer, as a complement to...

Leading into a debt crisis, interest rate spreads on sovereign debt rise before the economy experiences a decline in productivity, suggesting that news about future economic developments may play an important role in these episodes. In a VAR estimation, a news shock has a larger contemporaneous...