Using a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we estimate a causal 20 percent pass-through from inflation expectations to income growth expectations for the average consumer, with considerable heterogeneity in pass-through associated with sociodemographic factors. The results...

This paper adresses the various methodological issues surrounding vector autoregressions, simultaneous equations, and chain reactions, and provides new evidence on the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the US. It is argued that money growth is a superior indicator of the monetary...

This paper builds up a simple New Keynesian model and revisits the relationship between unemployment and in ation in the long-run. It finds that when the labor market is affected by downward nominal wage rigidity, this relationship goes beyond the tradeoff between the first moments of...

In this paper we use administrative data from the social security to study income dynamics and income risk inequality in Spain between 2005 and 2018. We construct individual measures of income risk as functions of past employment history, income, and demographics. Focusing on males, we document...

We develop an adjustment procedure to construct U.S. monthly time series of involuntary part-time employment stocks and flows from 1976 until today. Armed with these new data, we provide a comprehensive account of the dynamics of involuntary part-time work. Transitions from full-time to...

Private consumption demand falls in response to increased unemployment risk during a recession, as households increase their precautionary savings and postpone irreversible durable investments. The postponement effect is seven times as large as the precautionary-savings effect in a calibrated...

We use a novel dataset that merges goods-level prices underlying the CPI in Mexico with the balance sheet information of Mexican publicly listed firms and study the connection between firms' financing structure and price dynamics in an emerging economy. First, we find that larger firms (in terms...

This paper builds a small open economy business cycle model with labor and financial market frictions that incorporates frictional, endogenous self-employment entry and a link between formal credit markets, informal credit, and the labor market. The paper then shows that the model is consistent...

We analyze shocks to productivity, collateral constraint (credit shock), firm operation, and labor disutility in a model of firm dynamics with entry and exit. Shocks to firm operation and labor disutility capture COVID-19 lockdowns. Compared to the productivity shock, the credit and the lockdown...