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Forecasting exchange rates of major currencies with long maturity forward rates

Darvas, Zsolt M.; Schepp, Zoltán - 2020

This paper presents unprecedented exchange rate forecasting results, based upon a new model that approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate and the actual exchange rate with the long-maturity forward exchange rate. The theoretical derivation of our forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012302033

Hierarchical time varying estimation of a multi factor asset pricing model

Baillie, Richard; Calonaci, Fabio; Kapetanios, George - 2019

This paper presents a new hierarchical methodology for estimating multi factor dynamic asset pricing models. The approach is loosely based on the sequential approach of Fama and MacBeth (1973). However, the hierarchical method uses very flexible bandwidth selection methods in kernel weighted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011960113

The exchange rate passthrough to domestic prices : new evidence from Colombia

Larrahondo, Cristhian; Chávez, Augusto; Álvarez, … - 2025

This paper calculates the exchange rate pass through (ERPT) with time constant and time varying coefficients for Colombia between 2006 and 2023. It then estimates the ERPT during four specific depreciation events during the period of analysis: the 2008 financial crisis, the 2014-2016 fall in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015193778

Energy prices and the real exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries

Dauvin, Magali - 2013

This paper investigates the relationship between energy prices and the real effective exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries. We consider two sets of countries: 10 energy-exporting and 23 non-fuel commodity-exporting countries over the period 1980-2011. Estimating a panel cointegrating...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010225994

Buyer market power and exchange rate pass-through

Juárez, Leticia - 2025

I derive a model-based equation relating pass-through to buyer size and estimate it on the micro transaction level data for Colombia. I find that after an exchange rate shock, sellers connected to larger buyers face more moderate changes in their prices in the seller currency (i.e., lower...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015410666

A study on the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to consumer prices in Malta

Abela, Glenn; Rapa, Noel - 2021

Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT), commonly defined as the extent to which exchange rate changes are reflected in the price levels of an economy, has important implications in a number of policy-relevant areas. Despite this, estimates of ERPT in the Maltese economy are scarce and do not take...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012604346

Timely measurement of real effective exchange rates

Darvas, Zsolt M. - 2021

We demonstrate that short-run real exchange effective rate changes are dominated by nominal effective exchange rate changes, while inflation rates are sticky and contribute little to short-run real exchange rate changes. These observations allow a rather accurate real-time approximation of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013184685

Forecasting exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR

Carriero, Andrea (contributor); … - 2008

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate driftless random walk models, especially at short horizons. Multivariate time series models suffer from the same problem. In this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003765975

Exchange rate misalignments : historical experience of Japan, Germany, Singapore and Taiwan compared to China today

Qin, Duo; He, Xinhua; Liu, Yimeng - 2010

This is a comparative study on the historical experience of real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignment of …) valuation. Panel-based misalignment estimates of the four economies show that net foreign asset build-up does not necessarily … result in currency misalignment, and the recent misalignment of RMB is not unprecedented in terms of magnitude, duration or …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003990427

Real exchange rates and primary commodity prices : Mussa meets Backus-Smith

Ayres, João; Hevia, Constantino; Nicolini, Juan Pablo - 2021

We show that explicitly modeling primary commodities in an otherwise totally standard incomplete markets open economy model can go a long way in explaining the Mussa puzzle and the Backus-Smith puzzle, two of the main puzzles in the international economics literature.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014516603