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"Google it!" : forecasting the US unemployment rate with a Google job search index
D'Amuri, Francesco; Marcucci, Juri - 2010
We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict … the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our … in comparison with the Survey of Professional Forecasters. -- Google Econometrics ; Forecast Comparison ; Keyword Search …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008702857
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Indian food and welfare schemes : scope for digitization towards cash transfers
Saini, Shweta; Sharma, Sameedh; Gulati, Ashok; Hussain, … - 2017
The paper presents a case for a phased rolling out of direct benefits transfer (DBT) for Food in India. By studying all states and Union Territories on three broad parameters: demographics, performance of the existing Public Distribution System (PDS), and current state of banking infrastructure,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708293
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In-kind transfers as insurance
Gadenne, Lucie; Norris, Samuel; Singhal, Monica; … - 2022
In-kind transfers can provide insurance benefits when prices of consumption goods vary, as is common in developing countries. We develop a model demonstrating that in-kind transfers are welfare improving to beneficiaries relative to cash if the covariance between the marginal utility of income...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013331080
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MIDAS modeling for core inflation forecasting
Libonatti, Luis - 2018
This paper presents a forecasting exercise that assesses the predictive potential of a daily price index based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011883796
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Predicting Chinese consumption series with Baidu
Song, Zhongchen; Coupé, Tom - 2022
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013545821
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Leakages from Public Distribution System (PDS) and the way forward
Gulati, Ashok; Saini, Shweta - 2015
The public distribution system (PDS) has been one of the main policy instruments of the Government of India (GoI) to provide food security to the people of this country, especially the vulnerable ones. The recently enacted National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013, also relies heavily on it to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472572
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Evolution and critique of buffer stocking policy of India
Saini, Shweta; Kozicka, Marta - 2014
India's economic standing and its policy landscape have come a long way since the 1943 Bengal famine. History saw buffer stocking of food grains as a famine-combating tool. Today, apart from serving as an effective hedge in times of famines, such grain stocks are a conduit deployed by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010404643
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The National Food Security Act (NFSA) 2013 : challenges, buffer stocking and the way forward
Saini, Shweta; Gulati, Ashok - 2015
The National Food Security Act (NFSA) 2013 combines and expands the scope of some existing food-based welfare schemes. It will be distributing raw rations, meal(s) and/or cash. Approximately 81.35 crore persons or 16.57 crore households are to benefit under the targeted public distribution...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010499477
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Food security in South Asia : issues and opportunities
Mittal, Surabhi; Sethi, Deepti - 2009
Food security is defined as economic access to food along with food production and food availability. Agriculture in the SAR (South Asian Region) is caught in a low equilibrium trap with low productivity of staples, supply shortfalls, high prices, low returns to farmers and area diversification...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003878383
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Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation
Alessandri, Piergiorgio; Mumtaz, Haroon - 2014
real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339756