policymaking. On the other hand, traditional core inflation measures may reduce volatility but do not address other issues and may … even exclude important information. This paper develops a new underlying inflation gauge (UIG) for China which … differentiates between trend and noise, is available daily and uses a broad set of variables that potentially influence inflation …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman … filter procedure is applied to filter the future paths of CPI components, given projected headline inflation obtained by …

power for inflation or, put differently, whether money growth Granger causes inflation. We use a historical dataset … - consisting of annual Swedish data on money growth and inflation ranging from 1620 to 2021 - and employ state-of-the-art Bayesian … likelihoods - provides strong evidence in favour of money growth Granger causing inflation. This strong evidence is, however, not …

We assess the bivariate relation between money growth and inflation in the euro area and the United States using hybrid … statistically unstable across time in both regions. The effect that shocks to money growth has on inflation weakened notably after … monetary aggregates to inflation. …

We use a simple New Keynesian model, with firm specific capital, non-zero steady-state inflation, long-run risks and … rate by 150 basis points causes output and inflation volatility to rise around 10% above their steady-state standard … deviations from the policy rule and the results are re-enforced by the presence of non-zero trend inflation. …

future changes in the rate of inflation. More recently, this relationship has been strengthened through the introduction of …-of-sample forecasting exercise. We find that three-regime models that allow for shifts in the inflation risk premium or real interest rate (or … both) are the most promising forecasting models of inflation when using the term structure. …

Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) for short-term forecasting of inflation - Autoregressive integrated moving average models …