Political crises often coincide with fiscal crises, with complex causal dynamics at play. We examine the interaction between tax revolts and sovereign risk using a quantitative structural model calibrated to Argentina. In the model, the government can be controlled by political parties with...

This paper discusses the role of sterilized foreign exchange (FX) interventions as a monetary policy instrument for emerging market economies in response to external shocks. We develop a model for a commodity-exporting small open economy in which FX intervention is considered as a balance sheet...

This paper calculates the exchange rate pass through (ERPT) with time constant and time varying coefficients for Colombia between 2006 and 2023. It then estimates the ERPT during four specific depreciation events during the period of analysis: the 2008 financial crisis, the 2014-2016 fall in...

Financial inclusion is strikingly low in emerging economies. In only a few years, financial technologies (fintech) have led to a dramatic expansion in the number of non-traditional credit intermediaries, but the macroeconomic and credit-market implications of this rapid growth of fintech are not...

Corporate sectors in emerging markets have noticeably increased their reliance on foreign financing, presumably reflecting low global interest rates. The evidence also shows a rebalancing from bank loans towards bonds. To study these developments, this paper develops a dynamic open economy model...

The effectiveness of exchange rate adjustments depends critically on the extent to which depreciations "pass through" to inflation, an effect that is known as exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). In particular, if an exchange rate depreciation does not result in a lasting change in relative...

Using Japanese firm data covering the Japanese financial crisis in the early 1990s, we find that exporters' domestic sales declined more significantly than their foreign sales, which in turn declined more significantly than non-exporters' sales. This stylized fact provides a new litmus test for...

This paper challenges the prevailing view of the neutrality of the labour income share to labour demand, and investigates its impact on the evolution of employment. Whilst maintaining the assumption of a unitary long-run elasticity of wages with respect to productivity, we demonstrate that...

We study the distributional consequences of COVID-19 by using a stock-flow consistent agent-based model that captures some of the aspects of pandemic-related lockdowns. In particular, the model distinguishes between "essential" and "non-essential" industries, between jobs that can be done from...

In this paper, we propose a new methodology for decomposing consumer price inflation into contributions of cost components using national accounts data. It builds on the well-known decomposition method for the value-added deflator and expands it by combining the cost structure of the consumption...