This paper uses Bayesian techniques and Maltese data over the period 2001-2019 to estimate the parameters of MEDSEA-FIN, one of the Central Bank of Malta's DSGE models. The model captures linkages between the housing sector, banks and the rest of the economy via a borrowing collateral...

This paper presents a credit gap for Malta derived from a semi-structural multivariate filter. This modelling approach has several advantages over univariate approaches typically used, for example to construct the Basel gap. The multivariate filtering of observed data into trends and cycles is...

China is appraised to have the world's largest exploitable reserves of shale gas, although several legal, regulatory, environmental and investment-related issues will likely restrain its scope. China's capacity to successfully face these hurdles and produce commercial shale gas will have a...

This article studies the likely impact of unconventional gas developments in the US on EU competitiveness. We find, first of all, little evidence for a prosperous unconventional gas development in Europe. Second, the US boom has already a strong impact on both world and European energy markets....

In the past decade, innovations in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have fueled a boom in the production of natural gas (as well as oil) from geological formations - primarily deep shales - in which hydrocarbon production was previously unprofitable. Impacts on US fossil fuel...

The global low-carbon energy transition driven by technological change and government plans to comply with the Paris Agreement makes future gas demand, prices, and associated public revenues uncertain. We assess the prospects for natural gas production and public revenues from royalties and...

I study the firm-level dynamic response of a commodity-exporting economy to global cycles in commodity prices. To do so, I develop a heterogeneous-firms model that endogenizes declines in aggregate productivity through reallocation towards less productive firms. Within a given sector, commodity...

In recent years, an increasing number of countries have began anchoring their fiscal policy frameworks in terms of rules that target the cyclically adjusted or structural (as opposed to actual) balance in an effort to overcome problems of procyclicality and fiscal volatility. The logic for doing...

Despite data limitations, formal methods can still be applied to identify business cycle turning points and hence date appropriately the Maltese business cycle. An extension of the official quarterly GDP time series to the 1970s allows for a historical view on dating the business cycle, leading...