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uncertainty in multicandidate elections. Adopting a theory-based experimental approach, we explore whether aggregate uncertainty …
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static forecasts, as well as different measures of forecast errors. Finally, we propose a new class of models which combine …
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. Additionally, an analysis of intra-period forecasts, reveals a slight trend towards increased forecast accuracy as the daily …
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accuracy is assessed through in-sample forecast evaluation across various data sub-samples. This paper also discusses how these …
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