The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman … filter procedure is applied to filter the future paths of CPI components, given projected headline inflation obtained by …

This paper conducts a structural analysis of inflation persistence in the United Kingdom between 1965-2009. I allow for … 1992. I find a small but insignificant decrease in inflation persistence in the policy regime that responds more actively … and stochastic shock volatility. The first policy regime responds passively to movements in inflation, adjusting the …

data from 1995Q4 to 2021Q4 and Bayesian estimation methods, we find that trend inflation has been well-anchored during the …In this paper, we estimate trend inflation in Sweden using an unobserved components stochastic volatility model. Using … period - although in general at a level below the inflation target - and it does not appear to have been affected much by the …

power for inflation or, put differently, whether money growth Granger causes inflation. We use a historical dataset … - consisting of annual Swedish data on money growth and inflation ranging from 1620 to 2021 - and employ state-of-the-art Bayesian … estimation methods. Specifically, we employ VAR models with drifting parameters and stochastic volatility which are used to …