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an important driver of business cycles and public debt dynamics, with much stronger shock transmission observed in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012153925
Financial markets are central to the transmission of uncertainty shocks. This paper documents a new aspect of the interaction between the two by showing that uncertainty shocks have radically different macroeconomic implications depending on the state financial markets are in when they occur....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472852
the Maltese economy. The model focuses on five broad macroeconomic shocks hitting the euro area; an aggregate demand shock … global market for oil, a generic monetary policy shock encompassing both conventional and unconventional interventions, and a … financial stress shock. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods over a sample that goes from 2003Q1 to 2019Q4 and …
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When do financial markets help in predicting economic activity? With incomplete markets, the link between financial and real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339756
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following the slump points to the accommodation of the shock by the ECB, concurrent with the implementation of the Quantitative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451685
instruments is effective in recovering the underlying shock. In contrast, identification based on recursive schemes and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484833
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