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When do financial markets help in predicting economic activity? With incomplete markets, the link between financial and real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by...
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models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation … Statistics. Additionally, we constructed several composite forecasts in order to test whether a combination forecast is superior … increases. Second, the disaggregated ARIMA model has the smallest forecasting errors. Third, majority of the forecast evaluation …
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desired policy goals. This paper develops a group of models to forecast inflation for Argentina, which includes autoregressive … can improve the forecast ability of the univariate autoregressive benchmark’s model of inflation. The Giacomini-White test … indicates that a BVAR performs better than the benchmark in all forecast horizons. Statistical differences between the two BVAR …
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Economic policies are generally formulated on the basis of data available in real time, which might subsequently be revised. Implicitly, the possibility of data revisions creates an element of uncertainty around the very same data driving policy decisions. Given that such uncertainty could be...
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