The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … inflation forecast, with relatively good fit of equations for food and domestic oil prices. This model serves as satellite model … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman …

Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) for short-term forecasting of inflation - Autoregressive integrated moving average models … models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation … increases. Second, the disaggregated ARIMA model has the smallest forecasting errors. Third, majority of the forecast evaluation …

real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail …" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by studying Bayesian predictive distributions for output growth and inflation in …

Inflation Expectations survey perform relative to the random-walk forecast when it comes to predicting five financial variables …In this paper, we analyse how financial market analysts' expectations in the Czech National Bank's Financial Market …-walk forecast for the repo rate and Prague Interbank Offered Rate at the onemonth forecasting horizon. For the five-year and ten …