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restrictions during the recent coronavirus pandemic. We find that more globalised countries experienced a longer delay in …
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We use a simple New Keynesian model, with firm specific capital, non-zero steady-state inflation, long-run risks and … Epstein-Zin preferences to study the volatility implications of a monetary policy shock. An unexpected increases in the policy … rate by 150 basis points causes output and inflation volatility to rise around 10% above their steady-state standard …
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While conditional forecasting has become prevalent both in the academic literature and in practice (e.g., bank stress testing, scenario forecasting), its applications typically focus on continuous variables. In this paper, we merge elements from the literature on the construction and...
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