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The results of an experiment extending Ellsberg's setup demonstrate that attitudes towards ambiguity and compound uncertainty are closely related. However, this association is much stronger when the second layer of uncertainty is subjective than when it is objective. Provided that the compound...
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Anscombe and Aumann (1963) offer a definition of subjective probability in terms of comparisons with objective probabilities. That definition - which has provided the basis for much of the succeeding work on subjective probability - presumes that the subjective probability of an event is...
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The survey is concerned with the issue of information transmission from experts to non-experts. Two main approaches to … the use of experts can be traced. According to the game-theoretic approach expertise is a case of asymmetric information … the expert’s performance. According to the Bayesian decision-theoretic approach the expert is the agent who announces his …
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experts’ estimates of the costs of future energy technologies. We harmonize data from 19 elicitations, involving 215 experts … that, on average, when experts respond to elicitations in person, they ascribe lower confidence (larger uncertainty) to …-and geography-US or EU-are also significant; academics and US experts have lower confidence than other types of experts. Higher R …
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For two periods an expert E announces his forecast of the state to a decision-maker D who chooses action. They disagree about the precision of the probability assessments. At the end of period 1 the state is observed. In the last period E makes announcements more extreme than his forecasts....
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