The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman … filter procedure is applied to filter the future paths of CPI components, given projected headline inflation obtained by …

Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) for short-term forecasting of inflation - Autoregressive integrated moving average models …

monthly core inflation rate in Argentina, known as "resto IPCBA" and published by the Statistics Office of the City of Buenos …

policymaking. On the other hand, traditional core inflation measures may reduce volatility but do not address other issues and may … even exclude important information. This paper develops a new underlying inflation gauge (UIG) for China which … differentiates between trend and noise, is available daily and uses a broad set of variables that potentially influence inflation …

power for inflation or, put differently, whether money growth Granger causes inflation. We use a historical dataset … - consisting of annual Swedish data on money growth and inflation ranging from 1620 to 2021 - and employ state-of-the-art Bayesian … likelihoods - provides strong evidence in favour of money growth Granger causing inflation. This strong evidence is, however, not …

We assess the bivariate relation between money growth and inflation in the euro area and the United States using hybrid … statistically unstable across time in both regions. The effect that shocks to money growth has on inflation weakened notably after … monetary aggregates to inflation. …

In 2016 the Central Bank of Argentina began to announce inflation targets. In this context, providing authorities with … desired policy goals. This paper develops a group of models to forecast inflation for Argentina, which includes autoregressive … can improve the forecast ability of the univariate autoregressive benchmark’s model of inflation. The Giacomini-White test …