Market mechanisms are increasingly being used as a tool for allocating somewhat scarce but unpriced rights and resources, such as air and water. Tradable permits have emerged as the most cost effective measure leading to the emergence of both nationwide (SO2 ) and supranational (CO2 ) emission...

We model the learning process of market traders during the unprecedented COVID-19 event. We introduce a behavioral heterogeneous agents' model with bounded rationality by including a correction mechanism through representativeness (Gennaioli et al., 2015). To inspect the market crash induced by...

This paper assessed the quantitative impact of ambiguity on historically observed financial asset returns and growth rates. The single agent, in a dynamic exchange economy, treats the conditional uncertainty about the consumption and dividends next period as ambiguous. We calibrate the agent's...

We undertake a variance decomposition of index-linked bond returns for the US, UK and Iceland. In all cases, news about future excess returns is the key driver though only for Icelandic bonds are returns independent of inflation.

This paper employs a Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) consistent shadow-rate model to decompose UK nominal yields into expectation and term premia components. Compared to a standard affine term structure model, it performs relatively better in a ZLB setting and effectively captures the countercyclical...

With a unique data set summarizing the quality of rules-based fiscal governance in EU member states, we show that stronger fiscal rules in euro area members reduce sovereign risk premia, in particular in times of market stress. To do so, we develop a model of sovereign spreads that are...

In this paper we estimate inflation expectations for several Latin American countries using an affine model that takes as factors the observed inflation and the parameters generated from zero-coupon yield curves of nominal bonds. By implementing this approach, we avoid the use of...

Monetary policy moves the yield curve. How much is due to expected interest rates vs. term premia? And does it matter for macroeconomic outcomes? Using an affine term structure model, we shed new light on these questions. Estimation is subject to restrictions addressing an estimation bias in...

The secular increase in globalization led to a substantial increase in the interconnectedness of global financial markets. This has important implications for the conduct of monetary policy, as central bank policies may diverge across countries, potentially affecting key transmission channels of...

This paper studies the term structure implications of a simple structural economy in which the representative agent displays ambiguity aversion, modeled by Multiple Priors Recursive Utility. Bond excess returns reflect a premium for ambiguity, which is observationally distinct from the risk...