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When do financial markets help in predicting economic activity? With incomplete markets, the link between financial and real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339756
How do severe recessions, such as those brought about by the Global Financial Crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic, affect the composition of energy generation between green and dirty sources? Does creative destruction during recessions result in a sustained greening of the energy mix? The empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014466810
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replicates the stylized facts following a drop in world interest rates; in particular, rebalancing towards bonds occurs because … bank credit becomes relatively more expensive, reflecting the scarcity of bank equity. More generally, the model is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011521207
plays on the world stage. The main thesis of our work is that, despite the triumphant rhetoric praising the merits of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009488633
We endogenize the liquidity and the quality of private assets in a tractable incomplete-market model with heterogeneous agents. The model decomposes the convenience yield of government bond into a "liquidity premium" (flight to liquidity) and a "safety premium" (flight to quality) over the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011780935
In November 2008, the Federal Reserve announced the first of a series of unconventional monetary policies, which would include asset purchases and forward guidance, to reduce long-term interest rates. We investigate the behavior of shorts, considered sophisticated investors, before and after a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011782636
activity across countries. We show in a two-country setting with borrowing constraints that international credit markets are … subject to self-fulfilling variations in the world real interest rate. Those expectation-driven changes in the borrowing cost … asset prices, GDP, consumption, investment and employment). When firms around the world benefit from unexpectedly low debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011911509
We show that US financial shocks have an impact on the distribution of UK income and consumption. Households with higher income and higher levels of consumption are affected more by this shock than households located towards the lower end of these distributions. An estimated multiple agent DSGE...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011787854
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