Agricultural futures markets can provide useful information to farmers for taking more informed planting decisions for their crops, which are forward looking, and thus reduce their market risk. But in India, agri-futures have gone through a roller-coaster ride since their mega opening in 2003,...

In this paper, we explore the role of trade in the evolution of labor share in Latin American countries. We use trade agreements with large economies (the United States, the European Union, and China) to capture the effect of sharp changes in trade. In the last two decades, labor share has...

This study investigates the price volatility of metals, using the GARCH and GJR models. First we examine the persistence of volatility and the leverage effect across metal markets taking into account the presence of outliers, and second we estimate the effects of oil price shocks on the price...

This study investigates the effects of oil price shocks on volatility of selected agricultural and metal commodities. To achieve this goal, we decompose an oil price shock to its underlying components, including macroeconomics and oil specific shocks. The applied methodology is the structural...

The study revealed the strong impact of policy measures on production, procurement, stocks and trade. We detected several market distortions and mounting fiscal costs. Wheat and rice supply strongly and significantly respond to the minimum support price (MSP). Wholesale prices at planting or...

We present a weekly structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of the US crude oil market. Exploiting weekly data we can explain short-run crude oil price dynamics, including those related with the COVID-19 pandemic and with the Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The model is set identified with a...

We develop a structural econometric model to study the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Colombian coffee production, exports and price. Our empirical specification is consistent with an economic model of the coffee market that, in the short-run, is characterized by a...

This paper applies an agnostic structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach to study the response of four Andean economies (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru) to international shocks. More specifically, we look at the response of gross domestic product, the real exchange rate, fiscal and...

In this article, we propose a cointegration-based Permanent-Transitory decomposition for nonstationary Dynamic Factor Models. Our methodology exploits the cointegration relations among the observable variables and assumes they are driven by a common and an idiosyncratic component. The common...

Putting a price on carbon - with taxes or developing carbon markets - is a widely used policy measure to achieve the target of net-zero emissions by 2050. This paper tackles the issue of producing point, direction-of-change, and density forecasts for the monthly real price of carbon within the...