We examine homeowner vacancy rates over time and space using Markov-switching models. Our theoretical analysis extends the Wheaton (1990) search and matching model for housing by incorporating regime-switching behavior and interregional spillovers. Our approach is strongly supported by our...

This paper examines house price diffusion across metropolitan areas in the United States. We develop a generalization of the Hamilton and Owyang (2012) Markov-switching model, where we incorporate direct regional spillovers using a spatial weighting matrix. The Markov-switching framework allows...

We estimate the short-run effects of severe weather shocks on local economic activity and assess cross-border spillovers operating through economic linkages between U.S. states. We measure weather shocks using a detailed county-level database on emergency declarations triggered by natural...

We study the comovement of international business cycles in a time series clustering model with regime-switching. We extend the framework of Hamilton and Owyang (2012) to include time-varying transition probabilities to determine what drives similarities in business cycle turning points. We find...

This paper uses Bayesian techniques and Maltese data over the period 2001-2019 to estimate the parameters of MEDSEA-FIN, one of the Central Bank of Malta's DSGE models. The model captures linkages between the housing sector, banks and the rest of the economy via a borrowing collateral...

This paper presents a credit gap for Malta derived from a semi-structural multivariate filter. This modelling approach has several advantages over univariate approaches typically used, for example to construct the Basel gap. The multivariate filtering of observed data into trends and cycles is...

This paper develops a two-block Structural Vector Autoregression featuring time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to estimate the changing spillover of global oil shocks into the Maltese economy during the period that goes from January 2008 to March 2022. The model is estimated by...

This paper develops a two-block Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) to estimate the spillover of external shocks to the Maltese economy. The model focuses on five broad macroeconomic shocks hitting the euro area; an aggregate demand shock, two aggregate supply shocks which respectively proxy...