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We develop distress prediction models for non-financial small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) using a dataset from eight European countries over the period 2000-2009. We examine idiosyncratic and systematic covariates and find that macro conditions and bankruptcy codes add predictive power...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011862221
We specify and estimate a lifecycle model of consumption, housing demand and labor supply in an environment where individuals may file for bankruptcy or default on their mortgage. Uncertainty in the model is driven by house price shocks, education specific productivity shocks, and catastrophic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013167646
This study introduces a real option model to investigate how fiscal policy affects a representative firm's investment decision and to measure its welfare effects. On the one hand, the effects of financial instability on the optimal investment timing and on the probability of default are studied....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012654165
In this article we use a stochastic model with one representative firm to study business tax policy under default risk. We will show that, for a given tax rate, the government has an incentive to reduce (increase) financial instability and default costs if its objective function is welfare (tax...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012006573
This paper investigates a model of strategic interactions in financial networks, where the decision by one agent on whether or not to default impacts the incentives of other agents to escape default. Agents' payoffs are determined by the clearing mechanism introduced in the seminal contribution...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011812108
While empirical literature has documented a negative relation between default risk and stock returns, the theory suggests that default risk should be positively priced. We provide an explanation for this "default anomaly", by calculating monthly probabilities of default (PDs) for a large sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011861135
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014547347
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009747199
The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we evaluate the responses to the questions on inflation expectations in the World Economic Survey for sixteen inflation targeting countries. Second, we compare inflation expectation forecasts across countries by using a two-step approach that selects...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011913189
The analysis of credit risk and its impacting factors are important topics for the European Investment Fund (EIF, the Fund) as the Fund provides guarantees to financial institutions for portfolios of loans and leases to micro- and small and medium sized-enterprises (SMEs). In this context, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011862434