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This study explores the benefits of incorporating fat-tailed innovations, asymmetric volatility response, and an … extended information set into crude oil return modeling and forecasting. To this end, we utilize standard volatility models … Stochastic Volatility (SV), along with Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regressions, which enable us to incorporate the impacts of …
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When do financial markets help in predicting economic activity? With incomplete markets, the link between financial and real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by...
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issue by characterizing the conditional and unconditional distributions of the realized volatility for the 2008 futures … volatility measures from naive, kernel-based and subsampling estimators are used to obtain inferences about the distributional … and dynamic properties of the ECX emissions futures volatility. The distribution of the daily realized volatility in …
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volatility and Student-t disturbances outperforms restricted alternatives that feature either attributes. The VAR model with …
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