A multilateral currency union removes the intraregional exchange rates but not the union rate variability with the rest of the world. The intraregional exchange rate variability is thus latent. A two-step procedure is developed to measure the variability. The measured variables are used to model...

This paper presents unprecedented exchange rate forecasting results, based upon a new model that approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate and the actual exchange rate with the long-maturity forward exchange rate. The theoretical derivation of our forecasting...

This paper introduces a novel monetary policy framework where the exchange rate becomes the central instrument. Using Singapore as a case study, it explores the Monetary Authority's adoption of the exchange rate as the primary tool since 1981, diverging from conventional approaches centered on...