Household financial resilience is related to the availability of financial resources but also to the ability to anticipate and assess future situations and prepare for them accordingly. Overplacement describes the tendency of individuals to rate themselves better than others, i.e. they believe...

Using micro data on expenditure and income for 17 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, this paper presents stylized facts on saving behavior by age, education, income and place of residence. Counterfactual saving rates are computed by imposing the saving behavior, the population...

This paper discusses the determinants of and the barriers to formal saving both from the theoretical point of view and based on empirical evidence from various associated interventions and their possible effects at the micro and macroeconomic levels. It presents a comprehensive review of the...

Using data from a randomized controlled trial in 300 public high schools in Peru, this paper studies the potential of school-based financial education programs for youth. The intervention improves students’ and teachers’ financial knowledge by 0.14 SD and 0.32 SD, respectively. The impact of...

How do real-time expectations affect firms' economic decisions? We provide evidence by using a dataset on Japanese multinational firms' sales forecasts and exploring an unexpected escalation of a territorial dispute between China and Japan in 2012. Our estimation substantiates that, after the...

The largest economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic could arise if it changed behavior long after the immediate health crisis is resolved. A common explanation for such a long-lived effect is the scarring of beliefs. We show how to quantify the extent of such belief changes and determine their...

Unique longitudinal probabilistic expectations data from the Berea Panel Study, which cover both college and early post-college periods, are used to examine young adults’ beliefs about their future incomes. We introduce a new measure of the ex post accuracy of beliefs, and two new approaches...

The Great Recession was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit, employment and output. While narratives about its causes abound, the persistence of GDP below pre-crisis trends remains puzzling. We propose a simple persistence mechanism that can be quantified and combined with...

This paper focuses on the formation of inflation expectations of consumers in 9 Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. Using data from the OeNB Euro Survey, a large cross-country consumer survey, we show that the difference between realized inflation and reported inflation...