Inflation Expectations survey perform relative to the random-walk forecast when it comes to predicting five financial variables …-walk forecast for the repo rate and Prague Interbank Offered Rate at the onemonth forecasting horizon. For the five-year and ten … horizons. For the CZE/EUR exchange rate, no statistically significant differences in forecast precision were found. …

This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i …-specific influences. The results indicate that the explanatory power of the (negative) variance risk premium on oil excess returns is …

frequently participate in the survey manage to significantly outperform the random-walk forecast. For the central bank's policy … rate, the market participants typically have a statistically significant higher forecast accuracy than the random …-walk forecast at the three-month horizon; however, at the two- and five-year horizons, the random-walk forecast typically outperform …

improvement in forecast accuracy from our model is economically and statistically significant for almost all exchange-rate series …

this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR (BVAR), using a panel of 33 exchange rates vis … produces systematically better forecasts than a random walk for most of the countries, and at any forecast horizon, including …