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(PP) and decision analysis (DA), for natural resources management within the context of climate change research. The … proposal is presented, called NetSyMoD (Network Analysis Creative System Modelling Decision Support), which aims at … facilitating the involvement of stakeholders or experts in policy - or decision-making processes (P/DMP). A generic P/DMP is …
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I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time-...
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between the expert, who is the better informed agent, and the non-expert, who is either a decision-maker or an evaluator of … the expert’s performance. According to the Bayesian decision-theoretic approach the expert is the agent who announces his …
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decision-making is subject to cognitive or perceptive constraints. We show that distortions in the way probabilities are …
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This paper studies optimal decision rules for a decision maker who can consult two experts in an environment without … environments with one expert. In order to derive optimal decision rules, we prove a "constant-threat" result that states that any …. A particular property of an optimal decision rule is that it is simple and constant for a large set of experts …
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