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This paper conducts a structural analysis of inflation persistence in the United Kingdom between 1965-2009. I allow for … and stochastic shock volatility. The first policy regime responds passively to movements in inflation, adjusting the … other regime responds actively to inflation and places less weight on exchange rate movements. This regime is present for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012121979
The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman … filter procedure is applied to filter the future paths of CPI components, given projected headline inflation obtained by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011926820
This study analyses India's inflation using the Phillips curve theory. To estimate an open-economy Phillips curve, we … need three variables: (1) inflation (2) the output gap and (3) the real effective exchange rate. In India, the incorrect … composite consumer price index (CCPI) was the best measure of inflation, and should be used to construct the real effective …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009535610
We review macroeconomic performance over the period since the Global Financial Crisis and the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. We characterize the use of forward guidance and balance sheet policies after the federal funds rate reached the effective lower bound. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012308081
We analyze the determinants of the inflation trends in ten Southeast European (SEE) countries. Global cost …-related factors and euro area (EA) inflation developments play an important role in explaining inflation dynamics in SEE countries … exchange to euro area market appear to be susceptible to inflation spillovers from the euro area. Moreover, nominal effective …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012124587
promotions on inflation measurement. Although changes in product-level expenditure shares were unusually high during lockdown, we … inflation, and lower use of promotions by low-income consumers explains why they experienced moderately lower inflation. Overall …, changes in shopping behaviours played only a minor role in driving higher inflation during lockdown; higher prices were the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293184
responds to inflation and output volatility, especially during economic crises. This framework offers a promising alternative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014538995
This paper explores the effect of inflation supply and demand shocks on government debt. It identifies the shocks using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014536631
inflation, especially in the short term. However, in order to strengthen the economy's resilience to oil-price shocks, the paper …-output Analysis ; Inflation ; Industrial Structure ; China ; the United States …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008934659
This paper studies inflation persistence with time-varying coefficient autoregressions for twelve central European … countries,in comparison with the United States and the euro area. Inflation persistence tends to be higher in times of high … inflation. Since the oil price shocks, inflation persistence has declined both in the US and euro-area. In most central and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009768497