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Bayesian predictive distributions of oil returns using mixed data sampling volatility models
Virbickaite, Audrone; Nguyen, Hoang; Minh-Ngoc Tran - 2023
This study explores the benefits of incorporating fat-tailed innovations, asymmetric volatility response, and an … extended information set into crude oil return modeling and forecasting. To this end, we utilize standard volatility models … Stochastic Volatility (SV), along with Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regressions, which enable us to incorporate the impacts of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014252427
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Modeling stock-oil co-dependence with Dynamic Stochastic MIDAS Copula models
Nguyen, Hoang; Virbickaite, Audrone - 2022
Stock and oil relationship is usually time-varying and depends on the current economic conditions. In this study, we propose a new Dynamic Stochastic Mixed data frequency sampling (DSM) copula model, that decomposes the stock-oil relationship into a short-run dynamic stochastic component and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013258038
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US interest rates : are relations stable?
Karlsson, Sune; Kiss, Tamás; Nguyen, Hoang; … - 2024
estimating trivariate hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models with stochastic volatility for the three-month Treasury …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014490330
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Large vector autoregressions with asymmetric priors
Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano - 2015 - This draft: November 2015
We propose a new algorithm which allows easy estimation of Vector Autoregressions (VARs) featuring asymmetric priors and time varying volatilities, even when the cross sectional dimension of the system N is particularly large. The algorithm is based on a simple triangularisation which allows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011389735
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Fat-tails in VAR models
Chiu, Ching Wai Jeremy; Mumtaz, Haroon; Pinter, Gabor - 2014
volatility and Student-t disturbances outperforms restricted alternatives that feature either attributes. The VAR model with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339759
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Long memory, realized volatility and HAR models
Baillie, Richard; Calonaci, Fabio; Cho, Dooyeon; Rho, … - 2019
The presence of long memory in Realized Volatility (RV) is a widespread stylized fact. The origins of long memory in RV …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011964976
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Oil price forecast evaluation with flexible loss functions
Bastianin, Andrea; Manera, Matteo; Markandya, Anil; … - 2011
The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that should be implemented. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. First of all, we test and systematically evaluate the ability of several...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009382869
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Tests of conditional predictive ability : a comment
McCracken, Michael W. - 2019
We investigate a test of equal predictive ability delineated in Giacomini and White (2006; Econometrica). In contrast to a claim made in the paper, we show that their test statistic need not be asymptotically Normal when a fixed window of observations is used to estimate model parameters. An example...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012064875
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An empirical investigation of direct and iterated multistep conditional forecasts
McCracken, Michael W.; McGillicuddy, Joseph - 2017
When constructing unconditional point forecasts, both direct- and iterated-multistep (DMS and IMS) approaches are common. However, in the context of producing conditional forecasts, IMS approaches based on vector autoregressions (VAR) are far more common than simpler DMS models. This is despite...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011782870
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Tests of conditional predictive ability : some simulation evidence
McCracken, Michael W. - 2019
In this note we provide simulation evidence on the size and power of tests of predictive ability described in Giacomini and White (2006). Our goals are modest but non-trivial. First, we establish that there exist data generating processes that satisfy the null hypotheses of equal finite-sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011998061