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In this work, we propose an analysis of the global market for crude oil based on a revised version of the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model introduced by Kilian and Murphy (2014). On this respect, we replace the global proxy for above-ground crude oil inventories with the oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011794647
This paper provides an analysis of the link between the global market for crude oil and oil futures risk premium at the aggregate level. It off ers empirical evidence on whether the compensation for risk required by the speculators depends on the type of the structural shock of interest....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011794500
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008669344
We present a weekly structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of the US crude oil market. Exploiting weekly data we can explain short-run crude oil price dynamics, including those related with the COVID-19 pandemic and with the Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The model is set identified with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013254444
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012221928
-, three-, six-, and twelve-month futures prices, using recently developed multivariate conditional volatility models. The … shocks have a greater impact on volatility than positive shocks. In all cases, both the short- and long-run persistence of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602832
This study investigates the price volatility of metals, using the GARCH and GJR models. First we examine the … persistence of volatility and the leverage effect across metal markets taking into account the presence of outliers, and second we … estimate the effects of oil price shocks on the price volatility of metals, allowing for the asymmetric responses. We use daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011327443
This study investigates the effects of oil price shocks on volatility of selected agricultural and metal commodities … functions, the response of volatility of each commodity to an oil price shock differs significantly depending on the underlying …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011438674
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003546157
This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to explain crude oil futures prices are also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010189497