models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation … Statistics. Additionally, we constructed several composite forecasts in order to test whether a combination forecast is superior … increases. Second, the disaggregated ARIMA model has the smallest forecasting errors. Third, majority of the forecast evaluation …

find a marked improvement in the DMS approach relative to IMS. The distinction is particularly clear when we forecast …

accuracy is assessed through in-sample forecast evaluation across various data sub-samples. This paper also discusses how these …

The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that … static forecasts, as well as different measures of forecast errors. Finally, we propose a new class of models which combine … producing accurate forecasts of the WTI spot price. -- Oil Price ; WTI Spot and Futures Prices ; Forecasting ; Econometric …

ethanol and agricultural price returns, little is known about their whole distributions. We focus on predictability in … distribution by asking whether ethanol returns can be used to forecast different parts of field crops returns distribution, or vice … Squares. Forecast evaluation relies on quantile-weighed scoring rules, which identify regions of the distribution of interest …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … inflation forecast, with relatively good fit of equations for food and domestic oil prices. This model serves as satellite model …

This paper presents a forecasting exercise that assesses the predictive potential of a daily price index based on … with a finance research corporation, State Street Global Markets. This online price index is tested as a predictor of the …. Additionally, an analysis of intra-period forecasts, reveals a slight trend towards increased forecast accuracy as the daily …

Putting a price on carbon - with taxes or developing carbon markets - is a widely used policy measure to achieve the … forecasts for the monthly real price of carbon within the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). We aim to uncover supply- and … predictors affecting the price of carbon, provides substantial accuracy gains over a wide set of benchmark forecasts, including …