The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that … static forecasts, as well as different measures of forecast errors. Finally, we propose a new class of models which combine … producing accurate forecasts of the WTI spot price. -- Oil Price ; WTI Spot and Futures Prices ; Forecasting ; Econometric …

This paper presents a forecasting exercise that assesses the predictive potential of a daily price index based on … with a finance research corporation, State Street Global Markets. This online price index is tested as a predictor of the …. Additionally, an analysis of intra-period forecasts, reveals a slight trend towards increased forecast accuracy as the daily …

models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation … Statistics. Additionally, we constructed several composite forecasts in order to test whether a combination forecast is superior … increases. Second, the disaggregated ARIMA model has the smallest forecasting errors. Third, majority of the forecast evaluation …

Inflation Expectations survey perform relative to the random-walk forecast when it comes to predicting five financial variables …-walk forecast for the repo rate and Prague Interbank Offered Rate at the onemonth forecasting horizon. For the five-year and ten … horizons. For the CZE/EUR exchange rate, no statistically significant differences in forecast precision were found. …

ethanol and agricultural price returns, little is known about their whole distributions. We focus on predictability in … distribution by asking whether ethanol returns can be used to forecast different parts of field crops returns distribution, or vice … Squares. Forecast evaluation relies on quantile-weighed scoring rules, which identify regions of the distribution of interest …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … inflation forecast, with relatively good fit of equations for food and domestic oil prices. This model serves as satellite model …