When do financial markets help in predicting economic activity? With incomplete markets, the link between financial and real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by...

This paper proposes a methodology for constructing a Financial Conditions Indicator (FCI) based on factor analysis and the approaches of Brave and Butters (2011) and Aramonte et al. (2013). A selected set of variables is used and their information content aggregated into a single index that...

In this paper, we analyse how financial market analysts' expectations in the Czech National Bank's Financial Market Inflation Expectations survey perform relative to the random-walk forecast when it comes to predicting five financial variables. Using data from 2001 to 2022, our results indicate...

This paper presents long time series of stock and bond returns for Denmark from 1922 to 1999. Average stock returns are low in an international context, but returns (and volatility) have increased sharply since 1983 which may be explained by major changes in economic policy and liberalizations...

The promotion of an inclusive financial system is considered a policy priority in many countries. While the importance of financial inclusion is widely recognized, the literature lacks a comprehensive measure that can be used to measure the extent of financial inclusion across economies. This...

This paper studies the role of trade for the joint uptake of AI-enabled automation in manufacturing and engineering. It develops an agent-based model (ABM) where the agents are heterogeneous manufacturers and engineering firms. The model features two technology-related business models:...