instruments is effective in recovering the underlying shock. In contrast, identification based on recursive schemes and …, on average, that credit supply shocks that raise spreads by 10 basis points reduce GDP growth and inflation by 1% after …

authorities tried to deliver a low and stable inflation from 1975 onwards, however, the severe adverse supply shocks in the 70s …

instrumental variable procedure to estimate the impact of the credit shock performs well and is relatively robust to measurement …, VARs of the narrative variety, i.e. VAR models that include measures of the credit shock as endogenous variables are highly … suggests, however, that the credit supply shock is hard to identify in practice. …