increases. Second, the disaggregated ARIMA model has the smallest forecasting errors. Third, majority of the forecast evaluation … Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) for short-term forecasting of inflation - Autoregressive integrated moving average models … models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation …

real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail …" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by studying Bayesian predictive distributions for output growth and inflation in …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … inflation forecast, with relatively good fit of equations for food and domestic oil prices. This model serves as satellite model … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman …

This paper proposes a forecasting model that combines a factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) methodology with the Nelson and … variables. Our forecasting model significantly improves the predicting accuracy of extant models in the literature, particularly … at short-term horizons. For instance, the mean absolute forecast errors are 15-40% lower than the random walk benchmark …