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GARCH analyses of risk and uncertainty in the theories of the interest rate of Keynes and Kalecki
Gabrisch, Hubert - 2021
This study attempts to identify uncertainty in the long-term rate of interest based on the controversial interest rate …-form GARCH-in-mean model assigned to six globally leading financial markets. The obtained results support Keynes's theory - the … macroeconomic variables without interest uncertainty are thus seriously incomplete. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012424659
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Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates
Kaminska, Iryna; Mumtaz, Haroon; Šustek, Roman - 2020
for macroeconomic outcomes? Using an affine term structure model, we shed new light on these questions. Estimation is … subject to restrictions addressing an estimation bias in expected interest rates obtained by previous studies. Highfrequency … the transmission mechanism and broadly consistent with macroeconomic theory. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012316011
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Forward guidance matters : disentangling monetary policy shocks
Ferreira, Leonardo Nogueira - 2020
Central banks have usually employed short-term rates as the main instrument of monetary policy. In the last decades, however, forward guidance has also become a central tool for monetary policy. In an innovative way this paper combines two sources of extraneous information - high frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012295693
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UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound
Carriero, Andrea; Mouabbi, Sarah; Vangelista, Elisabetta - 2015
inflation expectations and risk premia. This entails jointly pricing and decomposing nominal and real UK yields. We find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011339919
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Inflation targeting in Colombia, 2002 - 2012
Urrutia, Miguel; Hofstetter Gascón, Marcel; Hamann S., … - 2014
After decades using monetary aggregates as the main instrument of monetary policy and having different varieties of crawling peg exchange rate regimes, Colombia adopted a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime in 1999, with inflation as the nominal anchor, a floating exchange rate, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011285649
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Can we identify the Fed's preferences?
Chatelain, Jean-Bernard; Ralf, Kirsten - 2017
Using US data, we estimate optimal policy with a probability below one that the Fed reneges on its commitment ("limited credibility") versus discretionary policy where the Fed reneges on its commitment at all periods with a probability equal to one ("zero credibility"). The transmission...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011695111
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Hopf bifurcation from new-Keynesian Taylor rule to Ramsey optimal policy
Chatelain, Jean-Bernard; Ralf, Kirsten - 2017
targets (inflation and output gap) are forward-looking variables in the new-Keynesian theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011695130
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The evolution of the natural rate of interest : evidence from the Scandinavian countries
Armelius, Hanna; Solberger, Martin; Spånberg, Erik; … - 2023
In this paper, the natural rate of interest in Denmark, Norway and Sweden are estimated. This is done by augmenting the Laubach and Williams (2003) framework with a dynamic factor model linked to economic indicators - a modelling choice which allows us to better identify business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014252436
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Dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic volatility
Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2015
We use a simple New Keynesian model, with firm specific capital, non-zero steady-state inflation, long-run risks and Epstein-Zin preferences to study the volatility implications of a monetary policy shock. An unexpected increases in the policy rate by 150 basis points causes output and inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011389786
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Effects of monetary policy shocks on UK regional activity : a constrained MFVAR approach
Mandalinci, Zeyyad - 2015
This paper examines the effects of monetary policy shocks on UK regional economic growth and dispersion in a novel Constrained Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregressive framework. Compared to a standard MFVAR, the model partially accounts for missing quarterly observations for regional growth by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372798