, while the ECM implies symmetric price transmission from crude oil to gasoline. We quantify the forecast accuracy gains due …

distribution by asking whether ethanol returns can be used to forecast different parts of field crops returns distribution, or vice … Squares. Forecast evaluation relies on quantile-weighed scoring rules, which identify regions of the distribution of interest … by using field crops returns. On the contrary, there is no evidence that ethanol can be used to forecast any region of …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … inflation forecast, with relatively good fit of equations for food and domestic oil prices. This model serves as satellite model …

The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap … ; Markov-switching ; Auxiliary information ; Model averaging ; Inflation forecast ; Real-time analysis …

static forecasts, as well as different measures of forecast errors. Finally, we propose a new class of models which combine …

unemployment rate, only few of the forecast combination schemes are able to outperform the simple equal-weighted average forecast … bias. - Forecast combination ; forecast evaluation ; data snooping ; real-time data ; Survey of Professional Forecasters …

. Additionally, an analysis of intra-period forecasts, reveals a slight trend towards increased forecast accuracy as the daily …

models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation … Statistics. Additionally, we constructed several composite forecasts in order to test whether a combination forecast is superior … increases. Second, the disaggregated ARIMA model has the smallest forecasting errors. Third, majority of the forecast evaluation …