, enhancing the estimation method by taking a similarity approach, and adjusting the forecasts to put them back on track by a … similar to the nowcast and forecast errors made during the financial crisis and following recovery seems to produce the best …

This paper proposes a new methodology based on textual analysis to forecast U.S. recessions. Specifically, the paper … activity. When used in a standard recession probability model, the index outperforms the yield curve based forecast, a standard … method to forecast recessions, at medium horizons, up to 8 months. Moreover, the index contains information not included in …

-specification, estimation uncertainty and mis-measurement error. Forecastorigin shifts in parameters affect absolute, but not relative, forecast … accuracies; mis-specification and estimation uncertainty induce forecast-error differences, which variable-selection procedures …To forecast an aggregate, we propose adding disaggregate variables, instead of combining forecasts of those …

. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor deteriorated (i …