This study applies a model averaging approach to conditionally forecast housing investment in the largest euro area … investment which calls for country-specific housing market policies. A pseudo out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that our …. This suggests that there is ample scope for model averaging tools in forecast exercises, notably as they also help to …

overwhelmingly linear, this finding suggests that the expert judgement embedded in the ECB forecast may be characterized by some mild …

This paper proposes a new methodology based on textual analysis to forecast U.S. recessions. Specifically, the paper … activity. When used in a standard recession probability model, the index outperforms the yield curve based forecast, a standard … method to forecast recessions, at medium horizons, up to 8 months. Moreover, the index contains information not included in …

, covering 2001Q1-2019Q4. The adaptive learning model obtains better within-sample fit for all vintages used for estimation in … the forecast exercise and for the full sample. However, the rational expectations model typically predicts real GDP growth … forecast horizon, while the adaptive learning model predicts better for the outer quarters. …