The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap … ; Markov-switching ; Auxiliary information ; Model averaging ; Inflation forecast ; Real-time analysis …

unemployment rate, only few of the forecast combination schemes are able to outperform the simple equal-weighted average forecast … bias. - Forecast combination ; forecast evaluation ; data snooping ; real-time data ; Survey of Professional Forecasters …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an … estimated slack or by estimates from international economic institutions; (iii) external variables do not bring forecast gains …

Density forecast combinations are examined in real-time using the log score to compare five methods: fixed weights …

Energy inflation is a major source of headline inflation volatility and forecast errors, therefore it is critical to … pre-tax price modelling. These characteristics enhance both in-sample explanatory power and forecast accuracy. Compared to …

, covering 2001Q1-2019Q4. The adaptive learning model obtains better within-sample fit for all vintages used for estimation in … the forecast exercise and for the full sample. However, the rational expectations model typically predicts real GDP growth … forecast horizon, while the adaptive learning model predicts better for the outer quarters. …

within our framework and we derive the relationship between the news and the resulting forecast revision. This can be used …