During the summer of 2005, the Big Three U.S. automobile manufacturers offered a customer promotion that allowed customers to buy new cars at the discounted price formerly offered only to employees. The initial months of the promotion were record sales months for each of the Big Three firms,...

"An NBER digest for this paper is available.Researchers estimating the demand for energy-using durable goods must specify consumers' beliefs about future energy prices. Policy-relevant inference hinges on this specification, yet there is little direct evidence on the nature of consumer beliefs....