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Behavioral and experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis : a complex systems approach
Hommes, Cars H. - 2018
This survey discusses behavioral and experimental macroeconomics emphasizing a complex systems perspective. The economy consists of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents who do not fully understand their complex environment and use simple decision heuristics. Central to our survey is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011929804
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Money and prices in models of bounded rationality in high inflation economies
Marcet, Albert (contributor);  … - 2005
This paper studies the short run correlation of inflation and money growth. We study whether a model of learning does better or worse than a model of rational expectations, and we focus our study on countries of high inflation. We take the money process as an exogenous variable, estimated from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002821110
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Infinite-dimensional VARs and factor models
Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2009
This paper introduces a novel approach for dealing with the "curse of dimensionality" in the case of large linear dynamic systems. Restrictions on the coefficients of an unrestricted VAR are proposed that are binding only in a limit as the number of endogenous variables tends to infinity. It is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831142
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Central clearing and collateral demand
Duffie, Darrell; Scheicher, Martin; Vuillemey, Guillaume - 2014
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010380081
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Global risk and the dollar
Georgiadis, Georgios; Müller, Gernot J.; Schumann, Ben - 2021
How does global risk impact the world economy? In taking up this question, we focus on the dollar’s role in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705529
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The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices
Allayioti, Anastasia; Venditti, Fabrizio - 2024
Commodity prices co-move, but the strength of this co-movement changes over time due to structural factors, like changing energy intensity in production and consumption as well as changing composition of underlying shocks. This paper explores whether econometric models that exploit this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486704
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America First? : a US-centric view of global capital flows
McQuade, Peter; Schmitz, Martin - 2019
with those of the rest of the world. We analyse the relative importance of US, country-specific, and global variables as …. Global and national risk indicators perform better in explaining "rest of the world" flows. Moreover, we find that the … correlation between US and rest of the world flows peaks in periods of elevated uncertainty. We interpret our findings as evidence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975553
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Distance(s) and the volatility of international trade(s)
Mehl, Arnaud; Schmitz, Martin; Tille, Cédric - 2019
Does distance matter for the volatility of international real and financial transactions? We show that it does, in addition to its well-established relevance for the level of trade. A simple model of trade with endogenous markups shows that demand shocks have a larger impact on trade between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011994537
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Trade, finance or policies : what drives the cross-border spill-over of business cycles?
Montinari, Letizia; Stracca, Livio - 2017
In this paper we investigate how income growth rates in one country are affected by growth rates in partner countries, testing for the importance of pairwise country links as well as characteristics of the receiving country (trade and financial open- ness, exchange rate regime, fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636280
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The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies : measures of finance-adjusted output gaps
Grintzalis, Ioannis; Lodge, David; Manu, Ana-Simona - 2017
We present estimates of finance-adjusted output gaps which incorporate the information on the domestic and global credit cycles for a sample of emerging market economies (EMEs). Following recent BIS research, we use a state-space representation of an HP filter augmented with a measure of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637326