find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

We compare supermarket price setting in the US and the euro area and assess its impact on food inflation. We introduce … flexibility of supermarket inflation in the US relative to the euro area. We argue that the driving force behind both factors is … by a mildly state-dependent price-setting model, and they jointly explain over a third of the difference in food-inflation …

We propose a new measure of underlying inflation that informs, in real time, about asymmetric risks on the outlook of … and has several additional advantages. First, it is able to swiftly infer abrupt changes in underlying inflation. Second …, it helps to timely track turning points in underlying inflation. Third, the proposed indicator also has a satisfactory …