The fiscal consolidation measures adopted in many euro area countries over 2010-13 reduced excessive domestic fiscal imbalances, but came at the cost of short-term output losses. This simultaneous tightening of fiscal policy raised concerns that such output losses might be exacerbated by...

The paper presents a model-based assessment of fiscal multipliers operating in the euro area during the period 2011-2014. The assessment is conditional on two distinct reactions of the sovereign risk premium (either responding endogenously to fiscal shocks or being an exogenous process) and two...

The Eurosystem staff forecasts are conditional on the financial markets, the global economy and fiscal policy outlook, and include expert judgement. We develop a multi-country BVAR for the four largest countries of the euro area and we show that it provides accurate conditional forecasts of...